Wishlists to launch sales
A wishlist is a maybe, not a pre-order. Chris Zukowski's study of Steam launches found that the median game sells about 15% of its launch wishlists in the first week when it has under 5,000 wishlists, about 20% with 5,000 to 40,000, about 23% with 40,000 to 100,000 and about 25% above that. GameDiscoverCo's data for 2024 and 2025 found lower rates for games priced above $10. The calculator starts from those medians, lowers them a little for prices above $10, and shows a low and high case because real launches differ by much more than a few percent. Around 7,000 wishlists is often named as the point where a game shows up in Steam's Popular Upcoming list.
Reviews to sales (the Boxleiter method)
Only some buyers leave a review, so the number of reviews times a multiplier gives a rough count of copies sold. The multiplier has fallen over the years. Recent estimates sit between about 20 and 60 sales per review, lower for expensive games and higher for cheap and casual ones. The calculator picks a starting value from the price, and you can type your own if you know better numbers for the genre.
From the price to your bank
The price on the store page is not what you earn. Sales and launch discounts lower the average price, players in many countries pay regional prices, some buyers refund, VAT and sales tax are removed, then Steam keeps its share: 30% of a game's sales up to $10 million, 25% up to $50 million and 20% after that. A publisher's share and tax withheld for developers outside the US can come off too. The bars show each step, so you can see which one matters most for your plan.
How exact is this?
Not very, and no calculator can be. The numbers are medians from public studies, and single games land far above or below them. Use the low case for budgets and the middle case for goals, and replace the default values with your own as soon as you have real data.